macro-policy-analysis

Macro Policy Tracking and Deduction Analysis Skill

Overview

This skill is used to automatically capture core policy developments globally and in China, conduct interpretation of policy intent, expectation deduction, and tracking of implementation effects, and generate policy analysis briefings for investment professionals.

Data Acquisition Strategy

Core Data Sources

Gildata-AIData (gildata-aidata) As the primary data source, providing comprehensive policy, meeting, speech, and public opinion data:

Data Requirements	Recommended Tools	Description
Policy Meetings	`PolicyMeetingsList`	Dynamics and content of policy meetings in the domestic economic and financial fields
Official Speeches	`OfficialSpeechEventList`	Speeches and activity information of important domestic and international officials
Laws and Regulations	`LawsRegulations`	Information on laws and regulations, filtered by type and keywords
Macro Public Opinion	`MacroNewslist`	Macro public opinion, filtered by region and sentiment type for economic forecasts and events
Market Public Opinion	`MarketNewslist`	Market public opinion, filtered by market type
Whole-Network Public Opinion	`NewsInfoList`	Whole-network public opinion, filtered by keywords, sources, and sentiment type
Macro Data Verification	`MacroIndustryEDB`	Macro industry economic data, used to verify policy effects (such as GDP, CPI, PMI, etc.)
Macro Analysis Views	`MacroeconomicAnalysisViewpoints`	Analysis views on macro dimensions such as GDP, CPI, PMI, and policies in research reports

Data Acquisition Priority

Policy Meetings and Regulations: Prioritize PolicyMeetingsList + LawsRegulations to obtain the latest policy developments
Official Speeches and Tone-Setting: Prioritize OfficialSpeechEventList to obtain speeches by officials from the central bank, Ministry of Finance, National Development and Reform Commission, etc.
Macro Public Opinion and Views: Prioritize MacroNewslist + MacroeconomicAnalysisViewpoints to obtain market interpretations
Web Search as Supplement: For details of overseas policies (Federal Reserve, etc.) and the latest breaking news, use web_search as a supplement

Execution Process

Phase One: Policy Information Capture

Policy Developments of Major Global Economies

Query using gildata-aidata：
```
调用 gildata-aidata OfficialSpeechEventList：
查询海外重要官员讲话（如美联储主席讲话等）

调用 gildata-aidata MacroNewslist：
query: "美联储 欧央行 海外通胀 大宗商品"
```
Supplement using web_search (overseas policies)：
- Example search keywords: "Federal Reserve latest policy interest rate decision", "ECB monetary policy", "latest trend of US Treasury yields", "overseas inflation data CPI PCE", "international bulk commodities crude oil gold copper prices"
- Key focus: Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and dot plot, ECB/BOJ/BOE monetary policy, US fiscal and debt developments, inflation and employment data of major global economies

Domestic Policy Developments

Query using gildata-aidata：

调用 gildata-aidata PolicyMeetingsList：
查询最新政策会议动态

调用 gildata-aidata LawsRegulations：
query: "央行 货币政策 降准 降息 专项债 减税降费"

调用 gildata-aidata MacroNewslist：
query: "央行 货币政策 OMO MLF LPR 财政政策 专项债"

Key focus: central bank open market operations, MLF/LPR quotes, reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut expectations, fiscal budget and special bond issuance, real estate policy, capital market reform, industry regulatory policies

Core Macro Public Opinion

Use gildata-aidata for query：
```
调用 gildata-aidata OfficialSpeechEventList：
查询央行行长、发改委官员等讲话

调用 gildata-aidata MacroNewslist：
query: "政治局会议 经济 国务院常务会议 发改委 产业政策"

调用 gildata-aidata MacroeconomicAnalysisViewpoints：
query: "货币政策 财政政策 最新分析观点"
```
Key focus: tone-setting at high-level economic meetings, speeches by officials from the central bank, Ministry of Finance, and National Development and Reform Commission, and important industry policy directions (new energy, semiconductors, real estate, platform economy, etc.)

Phase Two: Policy Classification and In-Depth Interpretation

Policy Classification and Organization

Policy Category	Key Points to Watch
Monetary Policy	Interest rate adjustments, reserve requirement ratio, open market operations, structural tools, window guidance on credit
Fiscal Policy	Fiscal deficit, special bond issuance, tax and fee reductions, transfer payments, infrastructure investment
Industrial Policy	Industry support/restrictions, technical standards, capacity regulation, import and export policies
Regulatory Policy	Financial regulation, capital market reform, real estate regulation, platform economy regulation
Overseas Policy	Federal Reserve/European Central Bank interest rate decisions, overseas fiscal stimulus, trade policy, geopolitics

Policy Intent Interpretation
- Analyze the background and motivations for policy introduction (pressure from economic data, changes in the external environment, structural problems, etc.)
- Interpret policy signals (easing/neutral/tightening, stabilizing growth/preventing risks, supporting/restricting a certain industry)
- Identify changes in policy tone (marginal changes compared with previous policies, and the meaning behind fine-tuning of wording)
Implementation Path Analysis
- Choice of policy tools and their transmission mechanisms (e.g., RRR cut → bank liquidity → credit extension → real economy)
- Assessment of policy intensity (above expectations/in line with expectations/below expectations)
- Judgment of policy time lags (immediate-effect type, medium-term-effect type, long-term-impact type)

Phase Three: Policy Expectation Deduction

Deduction of Subsequent Policies

Deduction dimensions for monetary policy:
- Judge policy space based on current economic data (GDP, CPI, PPI, social financing, employment)
- Deduce the probability and pace of RRR cuts/interest rate cuts/structural tool introductions in the next 1-3 months
- Analyze forward guidance in the central bank's monetary policy implementation report and officials' speeches
Deduction dimensions for fiscal policy:
- Fiscal deficit ratio and progress in using special bond quotas
- Follow-up arrangements for special treasury bonds and local debt resolution policies
- Pace of fiscal efforts (front-loaded/back-loaded) and its boost to infrastructure investment
Deduction dimensions for industrial and regulatory policy:
- Direction set by important meetings (Two Sessions, Politburo meeting, Central Economic Work Conference)
- Judgment of industry policy cycles (support period, standardization period, adjustment period)
- Marginal changes in regulatory attitude (encouraging innovation, preventing risks, standardizing development)

Prediction of Impact on Major Asset Allocation

Asset Class	Impact of Easing Policy	Impact of Tightening Policy
Interest Rate Bonds	Bullish (yields decline)	Bearish (yields rise)
Credit Bonds	Spreads narrow	Spreads widen
Stock Market (Overall)	Liquidity support, valuation improvement	Liquidity tightening, valuation under pressure
Stock market (sectors)	Financials and real estate, growth stocks benefit	Banks and value stocks are relatively resilient
Commodities	Improved demand expectations, weaker dollar support	Weakening demand expectations, stronger dollar weighs on prices
Exchange rate	Domestic currency under short-term pressure	Domestic currency strengthens in the short term

Phase Four: Policy Implementation Tracking

Assessment of Prior Policy Effects

Use gildata-aidata to verify data：
```
调用 gildata-aidata MacroIndustryEDB：
query: "信贷 投资 消费 就业 最新数据"
```
- Track the implementation of major policies introduced over the past 1-3 months
- Analyze bottlenecks in the policy transmission process (such as monetary easing without credit easing, slow fiscal spending, insufficient corporate investment willingness, etc.)
- Assess the actual pulling effect of policies on the economy (data verification: credit, investment, consumption, employment, etc.)
Policy Forecast Adjustment
- Revise prior policy expectations based on implementation effects
- Identify situations where policies are "all thunder but little rain" or "exceed expectations in force"
- Propose subsequent policy optimization suggestions or forecasts for escalation/exit

Phase Five: Report Generation

Generate a Markdown-format deduction report

Use the following template structure to generate the final report:

# 宏观政策跟踪与推演分析报告

> 报告日期：YYYY-MM-DD
> 数据来源：Gildata-AIData、央行、财政部、发改委、美联储、权威财经媒体等

---

## 一、政策动态概览

### 1.1 全球主要经济体政策
（美联储、欧央行、海外通胀与大宗商品动态...）

### 1.2 国内政策动态
（央行货币政策、财政政策、监管新政...）

### 1.3 核心宏观舆情
（经济会议、官员讲话、行业政策导向...）

---

## 二、核心政策深度解读

### 2.1 货币政策解读
（政策意图、工具选择、传导路径、力度评估...）

### 2.2 财政政策解读
（财政发力方向、专项债/减税降费、基建拉动...）

### 2.3 产业与监管政策解读
（行业扶持/规范、监管态度变化、中长期影响...）

---

## 三、政策预期推演

### 3.1 后续货币政策推演
（降准/降息概率、节奏预判、结构性工具展望...）

### 3.2 后续财政政策推演
（财政空间、发力节奏、特别国债/地方债展望...）

### 3.3 产业与监管政策趋势
（政策周期判断、重点行业展望...）

---

## 四、政策落地效果跟踪

### 4.1 前期政策执行情况
（过去1-3个月重大政策落地进度...）

### 4.2 传导堵点分析
（宽货币到宽信用、财政支出效率、企业投资意愿等...）

### 4.3 政策效果数据验证
（信贷、投资、消费、就业等数据对政策的响应...）

---

## 五、大类资产配置影响

### 5.1 债券市场
（利率债、信用债影响及策略建议...）

### 5.2 股票市场
（整体影响、板块受益/受损分析、风格偏好...）

### 5.3 商品与汇率
（大宗商品、人民币汇率影响...）

---

## 六、核心结论与策略建议

（总结核心政策信号、后续推演结论、资产配置建议...）

---

*免责声明：本报告基于公开信息整理分析，仅供参考，不构成投资建议。*

Notes

Policy timeliness: Prioritize policy information released on the same day or within the most recent week, and note the policy release date
Interpretive objectivity: Policy interpretation should be based on official texts and authoritative channels, avoid subjective speculation, and distinguish facts from opinions
Deductive logic: Policy deduction should be based on economic data and the policy framework, providing probability judgments rather than definitive conclusions
Tracking continuity: Policy implementation tracking should echo prior reports and reflect the dynamic evolution of policy effects
Overseas linkage: Pay attention to the transmission paths of overseas policies to the domestic market (such as the impact of Federal Reserve rate hikes on the RMB exchange rate and capital flows)
gildata-aidata priority: All domestic policy, meeting, speech, and public opinion queries should prioritize the gildata-aidata service; web_search is only used to supplement overseas policy details

Output Requirements

The report uses standard Markdown format
Policy citations must indicate the source (such as "PBOC April 2026 MLF operation")
Deductive conclusions should provide probability judgments (such as "60% probability of a reserve requirement cut") rather than absolute assertions
The report length should preferably be controlled at 2,000-3,000 words, focusing on core policy signals and investment insights

Example Invocation

User input: "Today's policy interpretation"

Skill execution:

Retrieve policy meetings: gildata-aidata PolicyMeetingsList
Retrieve official speeches: gildata-aidata OfficialSpeechEventList
Retrieve laws and regulations: gildata-aidata LawsRegulations
Retrieve macro public opinion: gildata-aidata MacroNewslist + MacroeconomicAnalysisViewpoints
Supplement overseas policy: web_search to query the latest developments of the Federal Reserve and others
Verify policy effects: gildata-aidata MacroIndustryEDB to query the latest macroeconomic data
Write report: Generate a Markdown-format policy simulation analysis report according to the template
Output report: Display the complete report content directly in the conversation

Skill Update Log

2026-05-11 Update：

Core Data Source Change: Changed policy data queries to prioritize the gildata-aidata service
New Tool Matrix: Established a gildata-aidata tool query reference table for policy analysis (PolicyMeetingsList, OfficialSpeechEventList, LawsRegulations, MacroNewslist, etc.)
Optimized Data Retrieval Order: Clarified that gildata-aidata is prioritized for retrieving domestic policies, meetings, speeches, and public opinion, while web_search is only used to supplement overseas policy details
Removed Single web_search Dependency: The original skill mainly relied on web_search, and now it fully integrates the gildata-aidata professional policy and public opinion database

Skill Version：v2.0
Last Updated：2026-05-11
Maintainer: Dianjin Intelligent Assistant