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global-macro-linkage

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Updated 10-15 19:55

About this skill

Overseas Macro Linkage Analysis Skill

Overview

This skill simulates the overseas research perspective of a securities macro analyst, automatically captures core global macro data and policy dynamics, deeply analyzes the multi-dimensional transmission paths of overseas economies to China's macro economy, monetary policy, and capital markets, and outputs a professionalOverseas-Domestic Macro Linkage Analysis Briefing。

Data Acquisition Strategy

Core data source: gildata-aidata

All macro data, policy, capital flow, market, and public opinion data are preferentially obtained through the gildata-aidata service.

Data Requirement Recommended Tool Description
Overseas/Domestic Macro Data MacroIndustryEDB Query international macro data (U.S./Europe/Japan GDP, CPI, PMI, nonfarm payrolls, etc.) and China macroeconomic indicators
Overseas Policy/Central Banks MacroIndustryEDB + web_search Structured data such as Federal Reserve interest rate decisions is obtained through EDB, with details supplemented by web_search
Domestic Policy Meetings PolicyMeetingsList Dynamics of policy meetings in the domestic economic and financial fields
Official Speeches OfficialSpeechEventList Speeches by important domestic and foreign officials
Macro Public Opinion MacroNewslist Macro public opinion, filtered by region and sentiment type
Macro Analysis Views MacroeconomicAnalysisViewpoints Analytical views on macro dimensions in research reports
Northbound Capital/Foreign Capital HSGTTradeStats Shanghai-Hong Kong-Shenzhen Stock Connect market trading statistics (northbound capital flows)
Capital Flows StockMarketCapitalFlow Statistics on capital inflows and outflows in the stock market
Exchange Rates/Interest Rates MacroIndustryEDB + MostActiveRateBondQuotation Exchange rate and China-U.S. interest rate spread data is obtained through EDB, and domestic active bond yields are obtained through bond tools
Index Market Data IndexRangeQuotation A-share index market data

Data Acquisition Priority

  1. Macro Data (including overseas): Prefer gildata-aidata MacroIndustryEDB(supports international macro database queries)
  2. Capital and Market Data: Prefer gildata-aidata (HSGTTradeStats, StockMarketCapitalFlow, MostActiveRateBondQuotation)
  3. Policy and Public Opinion: Prefer gildata-aidata (PolicyMeetingsList, MacroNewslist, MacroeconomicAnalysisViewpoints)
  4. Supplementary Information：web_search is only used to supplement overseas policy details, geopolitical breaking news, and other content not covered by EDB.

Execution Process

Phase 1: Overseas Core Data and Policy Scan

  1. U.S. Core Macro Data

    • Tool：gildata-aidata MacroIndustryEDB
    • Query Example： 
      调用 gildata-aidata MacroIndustryEDB
query: "美国 GDP CPI PMI 非农就业 零售销售"
time_range: "最近 3 个月"
    • Growth: GDP (seasonally adjusted quarter-over-quarter/year-over-year), ISM manufacturing/services PMI, retail sales, personal consumption expenditures.
    • Inflation: CPI (core/headline), PCE price index (the Federal Reserve's core indicator), PPI.
    • Employment: nonfarm payrolls, unemployment rate, average hourly earnings, initial jobless claims.

  2. Overseas Central Bank Policy and Liquidity

    • Federal Reserve: target range for the federal funds rate, dot plot projections, pace of balance sheet reduction/expansion (QT/QE), officials' speeches (hawkish/dovish leanings).
    • Other central banks: interest rate decisions and policy shift signals from the European Central Bank (ECB), Bank of Japan (BOJ), and Bank of England (BOE).
    • Liquidity indicators: US Treasury yield curve (2Y/10Y spread), US Dollar Index (DXY), TED spread.

  3. Global Geopolitics and Trade Policy

    • Geopolitics: Middle East situation, Russia-Ukraine conflict, risk of energy supply disruptions.
    • Trade policy: changes in tariff policy, technology sanctions, supply chain restructuring dynamics.

Phase Two: Overseas - Domestic Transmission Path Analysis

  1. In-Depth Analysis of the Four Major Transmission Channels

    Transmission channel Core logic Key indicators Affected targets
    Interest rate and exchange rate channel China-US interest rate differential inversion/narrowing -> capital flows -> exchange rate fluctuations -> central bank monetary policy space China-US 10Y yield spread, onshore/offshore exchange rates, foreign exchange reserves Monetary policy (constraints on rate cuts), exchange rate
    Trade and industrial chain channel Overseas demand strength -> China's export growth -> manufacturing PMI/profitability -> economic growth US retail/import data, China's export value, shipping indices Export chain enterprises, manufacturing business conditions
    Sentiment and capital channel Overseas risk events (recession/war) -> global risk aversion sentiment (VIX) -> foreign capital flows (northbound funds) VIX fear index, net northbound capital inflows, MSCI China Index A-share core assets, market risk appetite
    Inflation input channel Overseas commodity price increases (oil/copper/gold) -> China's import prices -> PPI -> midstream and downstream costs Brent crude oil, LME copper, China PPI month-on-month Upstream resource stocks, midstream manufacturing profits

  2. Overseas Economic Scenario Projections

    • Scenario One: US economic soft landing(slowing growth but no recession, moderate inflation) -> favorable for optimizing China's export structure, foreign capital returns to emerging markets, China's monetary policy space opens up.
    • Scenario Two: US economic hard landing(rising recession risk, rapid rate cuts) -> short-term shock to global risk assets, sharp contraction in external demand drags down China's exports, but China may benefit from the "safe haven" effect.
    • Scenario Three: US reflation(inflation rebound, rate hikes or maintaining high levels) -> stronger dollar, RMB exchange rate under pressure, limited room for the People's Bank of China to cut rates, rising imported inflation pressure.

Phase Three: In-Depth Assessment of Domestic Impact

  1. Impact on Domestic Macroeconomic Policy

    • Monetary policy: Does Federal Reserve policy constitute a constraint? Is there domestic room for rate cuts/RRR cuts based on "putting our own interests first"? How much pressure is there to stabilize the exchange rate?
    • Fiscal policy: Will weakening external demand force domestic demand to step up? Will policies such as export tax rebates and equipment upgrading be increased?

  2. Impact on Domestic Asset Prices

    • A-shares: Are foreign heavily held stocks (baijiu, new energy) affected by exchange rates? Is the export chain (home appliances, machinery, auto parts) affected by demand?
    • Bonds: The China-US interest rate spread has limited impact on the domestic bond market, but a large outflow of foreign capital could cause periodic disturbances; overseas recession expectations are positive for domestic long-term bonds.
    • Exchange Rate: Forecast of the RMB/USD trend, and the probability of using tools such as the central bank's countercyclical factor and the foreign exchange deposit reserve ratio.
    • Commodities: The transmission of imported inflation to domestically priced varieties (crude oil, nonferrous metals).

Stage Four: Linkage Analysis Brief Generation

  1. Generate a Markdown-format report

    Use the following template structure to generate the final report:

# 海外宏观联动分析简报

> 报告日期：YYYY-MM-DD
> 核心关注：海外经济/政策 -> 国内传导 -> 资产影响

---

## 一、海外核心动态概览

### 1.1 美国宏观数据
（GDP、通胀、就业最新表现及预期差...）

### 1.2 海外央行政策
（美联储/欧央行决议、点阵图、缩表节奏...）

### 1.3 全球地缘与贸易
（地缘风险、关税政策、供应链扰动...）

---

## 二、海外 - 国内传导逻辑分析

### 2.1 利率与汇率传导
（中美利差变化、资本流动方向、汇率压力...）

### 2.2 贸易与产业链传导
（外需强弱、出口结构变化、制造业影响...）

### 2.3 情绪与资金传导
（VIX 波动、北向资金流向、风险偏好...）

### 2.4 通胀输入传导
（大宗商品价格、PPI 传导路径...）

---

## 三、对国内宏观与资产的影响

### 3.1 国内政策空间评估
（货币政策掣肘/空间、汇率维稳手段、财政发力方向...）

### 3.2 A 股市场影响
（外资流向、出口链景气、核心资产估值...）

### 3.3 债券与汇率市场
（中美利差、长债收益率、人民币走势...）

### 3.4 商品市场
（输入性通胀、定价权品种...）

---

## 四、情景推演与策略建议

### 4.1 核心情景推演
| 情景 | 概率 | 特征 | 对国内影响 |
|------|------|------|-----------|
| 软着陆 | | | |
| 硬着陆 | | | |
| 再通胀 | | | |

### 4.2 投资策略建议
- **股票**：受益/受损板块、外资偏好变化。
- **债券**：久期建议、利差策略。
- **汇率**：避险/对冲建议。

### 4.3 核心风险提示
（海外数据超预期、政策急转弯、地缘黑天鹅...）

---

*免责声明：本报告基于公开数据与宏观分析框架生成，仅供参考，不构成投资建议。市场有风险，投资需谨慎。*

Notes

  • gildata-aidata priority: All domestic macroeconomic data, policy, capital, and market quotation queries should prioritize the gildata-aidata service; overseas macroeconomic data should likewise preferably be obtained through its international macroeconomic database (EDB).
  • Data timeliness: Prioritize the latest released overseas data (such as nonfarm payrolls and CPI on the day of release), and note the data release time.
  • Logical rigor: Transmission analysis must be built on economic logic, avoid simple linear extrapolation, and consider second-order effects.
  • Probabilistic thinking: The overseas economy is full of uncertainty; use scenario analysis (soft landing/hard landing) rather than a single conclusion.
  • Domestic perspective: Always land on "the impact on China," and emphasize the policy resolve and asset resilience of "putting our own interests first."
  • Cross-border linkage: Pay attention to high-frequency indicators such as the offshore/onshore exchange rate spread, northbound capital flows, and the degree of China-US interest rate inversion.

Example Invocation

User input: "China-US Macro Linkage Analysis"

Skill execution:

  1. Obtain overseas macroeconomic data: gildata-aidata MacroIndustryEDB (query US GDP, CPI, PMI, nonfarm payrolls, etc.)
  2. Obtain domestic macroeconomic data: gildata-aidata MacroIndustryEDB (query China GDP, CPI, PMI, exports, etc.)
  3. Obtain capital flows: gildata-aidata HSGTTradeStats + StockMarketCapitalFlow
  4. Obtain market quotation data: gildata-aidata IndexRangeQuotation + MostActiveRateBondQuotation
  5. Obtain policy and public opinion: gildata-aidata PolicyMeetingsList + MacroNewslist
  6. Supplement overseas details: web_search (query details of the latest Fed speeches, geopolitical emergencies)
  7. Write the report: generate a Markdown-format linkage analysis brief according to the template
  8. Output the report: display the complete report content directly in the conversation

Output requirements

  • The report uses standard Markdown format
  • Must include analysis of the four major transmission channels (interest rate and exchange rate, trade and industrial chain, sentiment and capital, inflation import)
  • Must include a scenario deduction table
  • The report length should be controlled at 2,500-3,500 words, focusing on the core transmission logic and investment strategy
  • The language should be professional and objective, suitable for institutional investors to read

Skill Update Log

2026-05-11 Update：

  • Core data source change: Fully integrate gildata-aidata Services, including overseas macroeconomic data queries (via the MacroIndustryEDB international macroeconomic database).
  • Tool matrix is clearly defined: Added mapping tables for tools such as EDB, capital flows, market quotes, and public sentiment.
  • Process optimization: Clarified the execution order of first obtaining Gildata data, then performing logical reasoning.