credit-industry-analysis

Industry Analysis

Target Role

Role: Corporate Account Manager, Credit Approval Officer, Industry Researcher, Risk Manager
Use Cases: Pre-loan industry access assessment, annual adjustment of credit policy, industry background analysis for specific customers, analysis of causes of non-performing loans, emerging industry access research
Output Purpose: Generate a structured in-depth industry analysis report to provide professional research support for credit decisions and industry understanding
Decision Level: Core reference material for credit approval, risk level medium, must be reviewed by a credit approval officer
Execution Frequency: Executed once before each credit application, and once during annual adjustment of credit policy

Data Sources

Required Data

Data Item	Source	Acquisition Method	Sensitivity Level
Industry statistical data	National Bureau of Statistics/Industry Association	API/File Read	Public
Financial data of listed companies	Wind/Tonghuashun/Annual Reports	API/File Read	Public
Industrial policy documents	NDRC/MIIT/Ministry of Finance	File Read	Public
Capacity utilization data	MIIT/Industry Association	API/File Read	Public/Internal
Historical industry analysis reports	Internal knowledge base	File Read	Internal

Data Masking Rules

Undisclosed internal corporate financial data: used only in internal reports, must not be disclosed externally
Customer trade secret information (such as core technical parameters): use "a certain technology" in external reports instead
Sensitive policy documents (undisclosed): only noted in internal records, not disclosed externally
Third-party commercial data: indicate the source institution, must not be disseminated without authorization
Industry concentration data: use interval values (such as "CR5=40%-50%") rather than precise values

Degradation Strategy

If Wind/Tonghuashun data is unavailable: mark "industry financial data not included", continue analysis based on public data
If industry association data is unavailable: mark "industry statistical data missing", use National Bureau of Statistics data instead
If historical industry reports are unavailable: mark "no historical comparison data", conduct only current period analysis
If capacity utilization data is unavailable: mark "capacity data not verified", estimate based on enterprise survey data
If policy documents cover only 1 year: mark "insufficient historical policy data", conduct only current period policy analysis

Constraints

Regulatory basis: CBRC's "Guidelines for Due Diligence in Commercial Bank Credit Granting", the People's Bank of China's "General Rules for Loans", the National Bureau of Statistics' "Industrial Classification for National Economic Activities" (GB/T 4754-2017), the NDRC's "Guidance Catalogue for Industrial Structure Adjustment" (current version), the MIIT's "Early Warning Mechanism for Overcapacity in Key Industries and Fields"

Clarification of industry boundaries: Before analysis, the industry scope must be clearly defined (according to the four-digit codes in GB/T 4754-2017) to avoid conflating adjacent tracks in the analysis
Data timeliness requirements: Quantitative data must indicate the source and cutoff date; data older than 2 years must be marked as "historical reference" with a note that it may no longer be valid
Separation of opinions and facts: Objective facts (supported by sourced data) and analyst inferences (based on logical reasoning) must be distinguished with different wording (use "expected/judged/estimated" for inferences)
Priority to quantitative conclusions: All directional judgments (such as "intense competition/favorable market outlook") must be accompanied by specific quantitative indicators (such as "CR5=47%, HHI=980"); purely qualitative statements are prohibited
Balanced presentation of risks: For controversial industry trends, both optimistic and pessimistic bases must be presented simultaneously to avoid misleading credit decisions with a single perspective
Data source grading: Primary sources (National Bureau of Statistics/PBOC/listed company announcements) > secondary sources (industry associations) > tertiary sources (commercial research reports); tertiary sources must indicate the institution and release date
Differentiation in scenario analysis: The core assumptions of the optimistic/neutral/pessimistic scenarios must differ substantially (growth rate ranges must differ by at least 5 percentage points); pseudo-scenario analysis is prohibited
Skipping steps prohibited: No analysis step may be skipped, even if the intermediate results "look normal". All numbers must show the calculation process.
Mandatory enforcement of red lines: If any of the 6 industry red lines (I1-I6) is triggered, it must be prominently marked at the beginning of the report and must not be hidden in the body text.

Financial compliance red lines

I1: Eliminated industries - The industry belongs to the eliminated category in the "Guidance Catalogue for Industrial Structure Adjustment" or is explicitly subject to restrictions on adding new capacity; credit granting must be suspended
I2: Severe overcapacity - The industry's capacity utilization rate is < 60% and has been continuously declining for 2 consecutive years; credit granting must be suspended
I3: Collective industry losses - Leading enterprises in the industry have collectively suffered losses in the past 3 years, and there is no clear policy support for capacity reduction; high risk must be marked
I4: Technology disruption risk - The industry faces major technology substitution risk, and the mainstream technology route is expected to be disrupted within 5 years; high risk must be marked
I5: Tightening of regulatory policies - The industry faces systemic tightening of regulatory policies, and the corresponding enterprises' compliance transformation costs exceed the profit center; credit granting must be suspended
I6: Subsidy phase-out risk - The industry's downstream is highly dependent on a single policy driver (subsidies), and clear signals of subsidy phase-out have emerged; high risk must be marked

Credit scenario-specific focus points

This skill covers both investment research analysis and bank credit scenarios. When used for pre-loan industry access assessment, credit policy formulation, or industry risk screening, the following dimensions must be prioritized in the output:

Dimension	Key credit concerns	Typical risk signals
Industry access compliance	Whether it belongs to a restricted/eliminated industry, and whether it triggers a one-vote veto for environmental protection or work safety	Listed in the NDRC's Catalogue for Guiding Industry Restructuring as a restricted or eliminated category
Position in the capacity cycle	Whether it is currently in an expansion phase or an overcapacity clearing phase, affecting the sustainability of corporate cash flow	Industry capacity utilization rate < 70%; capacity under construction / existing capacity > 30%
Policy sensitivity	Whether the industry relies on policy subsidies, and quantification of the impact of policy phase-out risk on profits	Subsidies account for > 30% of total profit; policy window ≤ 1 year
Stability of the competitive landscape	Direction of change in industry concentration, and whether leading players suppressing prices or chaotic competition erodes the profits of SMEs	CR5 < 20% and continuously declining; price war lasting more than 2 years
Amplitude of cyclical fluctuations	The transmission intensity of industry prosperity fluctuations to corporate revenue/profit, affecting the stability of repayment sources	Revenue decline at historical cyclical trough > 30%; price elasticity coefficient > 2
Downstream concentration risk	Whether the concentration of major end customers is too high, and whether dependence on a single customer forms a credit contagion chain	The top three customers accounting for > 50% of revenue is a common industry phenomenon

Execution Workflow

Step 0: Data Confirmation and Validation

List input parameters: industry name, GB/T 4754-2017 industry code, geographic scope, analysis purpose. Confirm the data time range and the validity period of policy documents. Run scripts/validate_industry.py to check the completeness of input parameters.

✅ Validation passed → proceed to Step 1
❌ Validation failed → return the missing list and ask the user to supplement it

📋 Data source:user_upload(industry information provided by the user)

Step 1: Clarify the analysis scope and select the framework

Confirm the following information:

Target industry and sub-sectors (clarify industry boundaries, defined by the four-digit codes of GB/T 4754-2017)
Geographic scope of the analysis (China/global/specific region)
Time dimension of the analysis (current status or future forecast)
Purpose of the analysis (pre-loan industry access/credit policy formulation/industry risk screening)

Select a combination of analysis frameworks according to industry characteristics:

Traditional manufacturing → focus on industry chain analysis + cost curve + capacity cycle
Technology industry → focus on technology maturity curve + penetration S-curve + innovation diffusion model
Consumer industry → focus on consumer profiling + channel analysis + brand strength assessment
Cyclical industry → focus on supply-demand analysis + inventory cycle + price elasticity

Consult references/industry-analysis-guide.md to obtain the industry analysis framework selection guide.

✅ Framework selection completed → proceed to Step 2
❌ Industry boundary too broad (e.g., "manufacturing") → prompt the user to refine it to the middle or small category

📋 Data source:user_upload(provided by the user)

Step 2: Industry overview and quantitative characterization

Market size estimation(specific figures and calculation logic must be provided)

Top-down: TAM (total addressable market) → SAM (serviceable available market) → SOM (serviceable obtainable market)
Bottom-up: end demand × unit price = market space
Cross-validation: supply-side capacity vs demand-side consumption

Precise Positioning of Industry Life Cycle

Introduction phase characteristics: penetration rate <5%, technology route undetermined, losses widespread
Growth phase characteristics: penetration rate 5%-30%, growth rate >20%, leaders begin to emerge
Maturity phase characteristics: penetration rate >50%, growth rate <10%, concentration increases
Decline phase characteristics: negative growth, capacity consolidation, substitutes emerge

Tracking of Key Industry Indicators

Identify 3-5 core leading indicators for the industry
Analyze the current state and direction of change of these indicators
Determine the industry's position in the prosperity cycle

Do not skip any calculation steps; all numbers must show the calculation process.

✅ Data complete → proceed to Step 3
⚠️ Partial data missing → mark "data missing", continue based on available data

📋 Data source:reference(National Bureau of Statistics/Industry Association)

Step 3: In-Depth Value Chain Breakdown

Sort out the complete industry chain structure, focusing on value distribution:

上游（原材料/核心零部件）— 毛利率？壁垒？集中度？
    ↓ [成本传导机制]
中游（制造/加工/集成）— 毛利率？壁垒？集中度？
    ↓ [渠道/定价模式]
下游（渠道/终端应用/消费者）— 毛利率？壁垒？集中度？

Value Chain Profit Pool Analysis

Comparison of gross margin levels across segments
Which segment are profits concentrated in? Why?
How will profits migrate in the future?

Key Bottlenecks and Chokepoint Segments

Segments with the highest technical barriers
Segments with the tightest supply
Progress and timetable for domestic substitution

Upstream-Downstream Bargaining Relationship

Analysis of bargaining power ownership (concentration, switching costs, degree of differentiation)
Cost pass-through capability (can price increases be passed downstream? How long is the time lag?)
✅ Industry chain structure clear → proceed to Step 4
⚠️ Insufficient data for some segments → mark "unverified", estimate based on research data

📋 Data source:reference(Listed company annual reports/prospectuses)

Step 4: In-Depth Competitive Landscape Analysis

Porter's Five Forces Quantitative Assessment(Score each item 1-5 and explain the reasons)

Competitive Force	Intensity Score	Key Driving Factors
Existing Competitors	/5
Potential Entrants	/5
Threat of Substitutes	/5
Supplier Bargaining Power	/5
Buyer Bargaining Power	/5

Evolution of Market Concentration

Trend of CR3/CR5/CR10 changes over the past 5 years
HHI index and its implications
Drivers of increasing/decreasing concentration

Analysis of Competition Factors

What are the core dimensions of competition in this industry? (cost/technology/brand/channel/scale/speed)
Differences in competitive strategies among players in different tiers
Is there a "winner-takes-all" or "differentiated coexistence" pattern

In-Depth Benchmarking of Major Players

Differences in strategic positioning
Comparison of core competitiveness (technology, cost, brand, channel, customers)
Comparison of financial indicators (revenue, profit margin, ROE, R&D investment)
Potential M&A integration opportunities

CR3/CR5 and HHI quantitative indicators must be provided; if data is unavailable, the reason must be explained and an estimated range must be given.

✅ Competitive landscape quantification complete → proceed to Step 5
⚠️ Insufficient concentration data → mark "data missing", provide estimated range

📋 Data sources:reference(Wind/Tonghuashun/listed company announcements)

Step 5: PEST Macro Environment Analysis

Political (policy environment)

Industrial policy direction (encouraged/restricted/neutral)
Specific policy documents and quantified impact
Judgment of regulatory trends
Geopolitical impact (if applicable)

Economic (economic environment)

Correlation with the macroeconomic cycle (β value)
Interest rate/exchange rate sensitivity
Impact of changes in household income and consumption structure

Social (social environment)

Impact of demographic structure changes
Changes in consumption habits/lifestyle
Impact of social trends such as ESG/carbon neutrality

Technological (technological environment)

Key technology routes and maturity
Pace of technological iteration and risk of generational shifts
Possibility of disruptive technologies emerging
✅ PEST analysis completed → proceed to Step 6
⚠️ Policy documents cover only 1 year → mark "insufficient historical policy data" and conduct only current-period analysis

📋 Data sources:reference(NDRC/MIIT/MOF policy documents)

Step 6: Supply-Demand Analysis and Prosperity Judgment

Supply-side analysis

Existing production capacity and utilization rate
Under-construction/planned production capacity and commissioning timetable
Capital expenditure cycle of capacity expansion
Supply elasticity (difficulty and time required for capacity expansion)

Demand-side analysis

Breakdown of end demand drivers
Assessment of the sustainability of demand growth
Demand elasticity (price sensitivity)
Potential demand substitution risk

Supply-demand balance table projection

Calculation of supply-demand gap for the next 2-3 years
Price trend judgment
Direction of change in the industry's profit center
✅ Supply-demand analysis completed → proceed to Step 7
⚠️ Capacity data not verified → mark "capacity data not verified" and estimate based on company survey data

📋 Data sources:reference(MIIT/industry association capacity data)

Step 7: Drivers and Risk Matrix

Growth drivers(sorted by impact)

Quantify the incremental space contributed by each driver
Assess the certainty and sustainability of each factor
Distinguish short-term catalysts from long-term drivers

Risk matrix(assessed by probability × impact)

Risk type	Probability of occurrence	Degree of impact	Response strategy
	High/Medium/Low	High/Medium/Low

✅ Risk matrix completed → proceed to Step 8

📋 Data sources:context(analysis results of Steps 1-6)

Step 8: Development Trend Forecast and Red Line Verification

Short-term trend (1-2 years)

Linear extrapolation based on existing data
Impact of policies/products/capacity about to be implemented
Short-term catalysts/risk events

Medium-term trend (3-5 years)

Unfolding Path of Structural Changes
Penetration Rate Growth Curve
Endgame Projection of the Competitive Landscape

Long-Term Trends (5-10 Years)

Possibility of Technological Paradigm Shift
Directions of Business Model Innovation
Envisioning the Industry's Ultimate Form

Scenario Analysis

Optimistic Scenario: Assumptions + Corresponding Market Size + Growth Rate
Neutral Scenario: Assumptions + Corresponding Market Size + Growth Rate
Pessimistic Scenario: Assumptions + Corresponding Market Size + Growth Rate

The growth rate ranges of the three scenarios must differ by at least 5pct, the core assumptions must have substantive differences, and pseudo-scenario analysis is prohibited.

Red Line Verification

Check the 6 industry red lines (I1-I6) item by item, consult references/industry-analysis-guide.md to obtain the red line judgment criteria
If any red line is triggered, it must be prominently marked at the beginning of the report
✅ Red line verification completed → Generate the final report
⚠️ Red line triggered → Mark it in a separate section at the beginning of the report and proceed to Step 9

📋 Data sources:context(analysis results of Steps 1-7) 📋 Confirmation mechanism:inform(notify the credit approval officer for confirmation after generation)

Step 9: Output the Final Report

Use assets/industry-analysis-template.md template to generate a structured report. Annotate all data: data source + data date + whether it is the latest data. Append a disclaimer at the end of the report, citing shared/disclaimer-template.md。

✅ Report generation completed → End
❌ Report format validation failed → Return to Step 8 for correction

📋 Executing entity:ai 📋 Confirmation mechanism:inform(notify the user that the report has been generated)

Output Format

Use assets/industry-analysis-template.md template. The report must include the following sections:

Industry Overview (industry definition and classification, life cycle positioning, market size and growth rate, core tracking indicators)
Industry Chain Analysis (industry chain panorama, value chain profit pool distribution, upstream and downstream analysis, key bottlenecks and domestic substitution)
Competitive Landscape (market concentration and evolution trends, competitive factors and core barriers, in-depth benchmarking of major enterprises, quantitative assessment of Porter's Five Forces)
Macro Environment (PEST: Policy/Economic/Social/Technological)
Supply and Demand Analysis (supply-side status and outlook, decomposition of demand-side drivers, supply-demand balance sheet and price trends)
Drivers and Risks (growth drivers, risk matrix, sensitivity analysis)
Development Trends and Outlook (short-term/medium-term/long-term trends, three scenario analyses)
Conclusions and Recommendations (industry rating, sub-sectors recommended for attention, key assumptions and risk warnings)

Annotate all data: data source + data date + whether it is the latest data.

Disclaimer: The end of the report must cite the shared/disclaimer-template.md template to ensure it includes necessary statements such as "does not constitute investment advice".

Downstream Compatibility: This output can be parsed and used by the credit-due-diligence and submit-credit-application Skills. Key output fields (industry rating, red line trigger status, capacity utilization rate) must use a structured table format; it is prohibited to place them only in natural language paragraphs.

Audit Trail

After each industry analysis is completed, generate an audit log audit/{行业简称}_{日期}_audit.json：

{
  "skill_name": "credit-industry-analysis",
  "skill_version": "2.0.0",
  "execution_time": "2026-05-05T10:30:00+08:00",
  "input_params": {
    "industry_name": "XX行业",
    "gb_code": "C3985（电子元件及组件制造）",
    "geo_scope": "中国",
    "analysis_purpose": "贷前行业准入评估"
  },
  "operator": "客户经理姓名（工号：XXX）",
  "steps": [
    {
      "step": "数据确认与验证",
      "executor": "ai",
      "data_source": {"type": "user_upload"},
      "result": "pass"
    },
    {
      "step": "明确分析范围与框架选择",
      "executor": "ai",
      "data_source": {"type": "user_upload"},
      "result": "pass"
    },
    {
      "step": "发展趋势预判与红线核查",
      "executor": "ai",
      "data_source": {"type": "context"},
      "red_lines_triggered": ["I2：严重产能过剩"],
      "confirmation": {"type": "inform", "notified_to": "信贷审批官", "notified_at": "2026-05-05T10:55:00+08:00"},
      "result": "pass"
    }
  ],
  "red_lines_triggered": ["I2"],
  "warnings": ["部分数据超过2年，已标注历史参考"],
  "references_used": ["references/industry-analysis-guide.md"]
}

Audit log retention period: At least 3 years.

Gotchas

#1: Industry boundary too broad

Symptom: Analyzing "manufacturing" or "wholesale and retail trade" without specificity
Cause: Failure to refine the GB/T 4754-2017 classification to the medium or small class
Solution: Always look up the client's exact industry code, and refer to references/industry-analysis-guide.md to obtain the sub-industry characteristics

#2: Market size estimation logic not transparent

Symptom: Only citing third-party research report figures without explaining the estimation basis and assumptions
Cause: Failure to strictly implement TAM/SAM/SOM or dual-sided supply-demand estimation
Solution: Formulas and assumptions must be listed; citing third-party figures without explaining the basis is prohibited

#3: Red-line signals buried in the main text

Symptom: Industry capacity utilization rate < 60%, but the red-line warning was not placed at the beginning of the report
Cause: Content was not prioritized when generating the report
Solution: After the red-line check is completed, if any trigger occurs, it must be marked in a separate section at the beginning of the report

#4: No differentiation in scenario analysis

Symptom: The growth rate assumptions for the optimistic/neutral/pessimistic scenarios differ by only 1-2pct
Cause: No core assumptions with substantive differences were set
Solution: The growth rate ranges of the three scenarios must differ by at least 5pct, and the core assumptions must have substantive differences

#5: Competitive landscape not quantified

Symptom: Only describing "intense competition" without providing quantitative indicators such as CR5 and HHI
Cause: Failure to strictly implement the quantitative requirements for the competitive landscape
Solution: CR3/CR5 and HHI are mandatory indicators; when data is unavailable, the reason must be explained and an estimated range provided

Examples

Example 1: Pre-loan industry access assessment (normal case)

User input：

请为光伏组件制造行业生成行业深度分析报告，用于贷前行业准入评估。地理范围：中国。分析目的：判断是否纳入授信准入行业。

Skill execution process：

Clarify industry boundary → GB/T 4754-2017: C3825 (Manufacture of solar photovoltaic cells and modules)
Industry overview → Market size, life cycle positioning (growth stage), tracking of core indicators
Industry chain analysis → Upstream silicon materials, midstream solar cells, downstream power stations
Competitive landscape → CR5=52%, HHI=1150, concentration increasing
Supply-demand analysis → Capacity utilization rate 75%, capacity under construction / existing capacity = 25%
Red-line check → I1-I6 not triggered

Output points：

Industry rating: Recommended for access
Core logic: The industry is in the growth stage, concentration is increasing, and capacity utilization is healthy
Risk warning: Pay attention to technology iteration risk (N-type cells replacing P-type)

Example 2: Industry risk warning (red-line trigger case)